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November 10, 2011

The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits last week dropped again to 390,000, the lowest level since April, continuing a trend that bodes well for job growth.

The number of initial jobless claims was down 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 400,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The initial figure for two weeks ago was 397,000, but was revised upward.

Still, over the last month, the average weekly number of jobless claims is right at 400,000 — a key figure that economists say indicates a decrease in the unemployment rate.

Since the height of the Great Recession, initial jobless claims have slowly been going down from a high of over 650,000 to a range between 400,000 and 425,000. However, they have remained within this range for about two years, except for a brief period earlier this year when they fell a little under 400,000.  A small but steady decline in initial jobless claims over the next several months could be a strong indicator that unemployment may begin to fall to a slightly more acceptable range of 7.5-8.0% within the next year. Of course, if 2011 is any indicator, there are lots of potential economic shocks that could keep this from happening.   11.10.2011. HRM Partners.

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